Given the volatile situation in the Bitcoin (BTC) market over the past couple of months, forecast market participants are not confident that the flagship cryptocurrency will be kriptovalyuta will reach a new historical maximum.
As of December 9, only 1% of users polymarket, who place bets on the platform, believe that Bitcoin could rise to $130,000, surpassing this year’s high of $126,000.
Despite the low probability, nearly $10 million has been bet on the $130,000 price target. Notably, three times as many bets are placed on Bitcoin falling to $65,000, a drop not seen since October of last year. However, only $392,000 is at stake.
Most traders (61%) predict Bitcoin will rise to $95,000 at best by the end of the year, but the volume of bets is also low — $581,000.
What will the Bitcoin price be by December 31st? Source: polymarket
By comparison, on October 27, cryptocurrency markets set the odds for a $130,000 Bitcoin win at 56%. As we can see, this odds have now fallen to their lowest levels.
The probability that Bitcoin will reach $130,000 in 2025. Source: polymarket
Today, on the daily chart, the price of Bitcoin fell by 1,1%, but still holds above the $90,000 mark.
Cryptocurrency The stock settled below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $92,383 and bounced off the 50% Fibonacci retracement level at $94,044, signaling weakening momentum.
Failure to recover to $92,000 could confirm a bearish pennant pattern, pointing to a target of $86,000 or even lower at $80,000. The probability of this happening is 31%.