After Bitcoin rose above $91,000, seasoned analyst Alessio Rastani made a bold prediction that the main kriptovalyuta is preparing for strong growth.
The trader’s conviction is based on a combination of a classic technical signal and prevailing negative sentiment, which he believes creates ideal conditions for a rebound.
According to Rastani, many traders are hasty in predicting a bear market, relying solely on temporary patterns and the sharp pullback from the October high. However, Rastani is confident that price structure and market sentiment suggest otherwise.
The analyst studied every Bitcoin «death cross» (when the 50-day simple moving average falls below the 200-day simple moving average) since 2011. He found that about 75% of these signals were near significant lows, with BTC typically posting positive returns in the following one to three months.
He added that something similar happened with the signal on November 15. In addition, index of fear and greed has been in a state of extreme fear for weeks, with social media comments full of pessimism about a possible drop to $10,000. It all adds up.
Other analysts are more cautious about calling a bottom, especially given the negative key blockchain metrics such as the 30-day and 365-day MVRV ratios.
Along with the crypto whalesThose holding between 10 and 10,000 BTC have been reducing their positions for six weeks in a row, casting doubt on the possibility of a sustainable return to six-figure prices.