For the last week of September Bitcoin grew by almost 1%, meaning the month can be considered positive. This is encouraging for crypto investors, as historically, a «green» September has been a favorable period for the market, often preceding strong growth in the final quarter of the year.
Bitcoin closed the monthly candlestick in the green in September 2015, 2016, 2023, and 2024, with the average return for the fourth quarter exceeding 53%. More specifically, the average return in October was 21,8%, in November – 10,8%, and in December – 3,2%, indicating October as a key growth moment, while the performance at the end of the year varied.
In such cases, Bitcoin’s returns in the fourth quarter ranged from 45% to 66%, often leading to new highs. If this situation repeats, the flagship cryptocurrency could reach $170,000 by the end of the year, based on current levels.
Seasonality data shows that October typically acts as a «launch pad,» with Bitcoin’s rally continuing into November and, in some years, December. This effect was particularly noticeable in the years following the halving, as capital inflows and market positioning contributed to the cryptocurrency’s new price formation.
Based on history and evolving market conditions, this year’s situation is almost certain to be positive. However, in most cases, significant gains begin around the third week, said crypto analyst Timothy Peterson.
Past performance is no guarantee of future results, but the upward trend in the BTC price after a «green» September adds weight to bullish forecasts for the coming months. Bitcoin is trading confidently above $110,000, and the last quarter could once again be decisive for this asset.