Bitcoin‘s plunge below $88,000 over the weekend dampened the enthusiasm of crypto market participants, while the derivatives market sent mixed signals, leaving even seasoned traders perplexed.
The fourth quarter, traditionally characterized by growth, has yielded -22,01% year-to-date, while December, as of December 7, has shown a decline of -1,63%. Both figures are subject to change, and the monthly figure is already showing some signs of optimism after a surprise jump to $91,500 on Sunday evening.
Coinglass.com statistics show that open interest (OI) in futures on Bitcoin remains high, but its direction is unstable. Total open interest in futures on Bitcoin The price of BTC stands at 637,700 ($56,82 billion), down 1,41% on December 7, suggesting that traders are gradually reducing their positions ahead of next week.
CME led the way yesterday with 124,440 BTC ($11,08 billion) in volume, though its 24-hour OI was down 0,61%, another hint that professionals are risk-averse.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume Binance was in second place with 121,640 BTC ($10,83 billion), showing a slight daily OI decline of 0,21% and a moderate increase of 0,25% over the past four hours. Futures book bybit, comprising 63,250 BTC ($5,63 billion), is down 0,93% in 24 hours, while OK recorded a 0,62% decline, despite a slight intraday gain earlier in the morning. Gate was the only one to show a 2,07% gain in OI on the day.
Over the long term, the OI has been retreating significantly from recent highs, often due to a weakening appetite for leverage when price momentum slows or remains bearish. If traders were hoping for a squeeze in early December, they now realize that it didn’t happen.
Options markets are equally lively and conflicted. Call options continue to dominate open interest, reaching 64,16%, with call volume reaching 333,190 BTC and put volume reaching 186,160 BTC. Over the past day, call volume has reached 55,56% and put volume has reached 44,44%, suggesting traders are still willing to dream.
Deribit‘s open interest leaderboard is full of optimism regarding strike prices: contracts between $100,000 and $118,000 remain at the top of the list, with contracts with a $100,000 strike representing 17,774 BTC. Meanwhile, short-term trading volume is concentrated in the $87,000 to $91,000 range, reflecting pressure from hedging firms.
The maximum price levels on the main options platforms are as follows: on Deribit it is held at $90,000, and the notional value jumps sharply towards the expiration date on December 26. On Binance The long-term contract’s high is down to the mid-$110,000 range, though December positions are still just below the six-figure mark.
OK reflects fluctuations in the range of $90,000 to $93,000, in other words, maximum loss levels remain significantly higher than spot.
However, New Year’s surprises are not out of the question, as Bitcoin’s abnormal declines are sometimes followed by unexpected surges upward. For example, on the evening of December 7, without any obvious catalyst, the Bitcoin price sharply rose to $2000.