Over the past few years, the rolling return on Bitcoin investments has declined dramatically and continues to decline.
Employees of the wealth management firm Diaman Partners have compiled a chart of the changing rolling returns of BTC investments, which shows that the effectiveness of cryptocurrency investments has fallen sharply. The peaks observed in the past, indicating the potential for huge profits, have not reappeared since 2021.
Bitcoin Investment Returns Over One Year
The volatility depicted in the chart demonstrates a significant shift in the risk-to-reward ratio of digital asset purchases, driven by a decline in the coin’s price volatility, driven by Bitcoin’s growing market capitalization. The higher the price of BTC, the more difficult it is to increase or decrease its price, so if the cryptocurrency’s value increases, the amplitude of price fluctuations will decrease.
In conclusion, Diaman Partners experts reported the absence of exponential growth in the Bitcoin price in the current four-year cycle beginning in April 2024 after the halving. Therefore, they estimate that the BTC price will exceed $1 million in at least 15 years, and the forecast of the asset reaching $13 million by 2040 is unlikely to come true. The good news is that the crypto winter will not be as severe as before, and in the worst-case scenario, the BTC price will fall by 50% from its peak, or to $63,000.