New research from analytics platform CryptoQuant suggests that 2026 is likely to resemble Bitcoin‘s 2022 bear market rally.
On November 21 Bitcoin rose 21%, which resembles a «bear market rally,» CryptoQuant noted in its latest weekly report.
According to the platform’s analysts, the reason lies in the 365-day moving average. Bitcoin could rise more than 20% from its low of $80,500 in November 2025, but that’s not enough to guarantee long-term growth.
The BTC price fell 19%, confirming the onset of a bear market after the price fell below its 365-day moving average (MA). Since then, the price has risen 19% to reach $97,900, approaching the 365-day MA of $101,000, the report states.
A similar scenario was observed in 2022, during the previous bear market. Bitcoin’s price fell 27% after crossing the 365-day moving average, then rose 47% before falling back to the 365-day moving average, the report states.
For this reason, CryptoQuant analysts suggest not to rely too much on short-term BTC price dynamics.
In 2022, many market participants believed the bear market was over, the four-year cycle had been refuted, and a supercycle was looming. These sentiments are little different from what we’re seeing today, according to CryptoQuant.