According to analytics company Glassnode, the current situation in the Bitcoin market is similar to the market structure observed in the first quarter of 2022.
Glassnode analysts presented data from their Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, which determines price levels corresponding to specific levels of investor profitability. The model tracks three supply quantiles: 0,75, 0,85, and 0,95. Bitcoin trading at 0,75, 75% of the supply remains in profit, while 0,85 and 0,95 levels correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively.
Bitcoin recently fell below all three quantile levels, meaning more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is currently in the red. Glassnode noted that this creates a balance between the potential capitulation of recent buyers and the possibility of seller exhaustion, leading to a market bottom. A similar situation was observed in early 2022.
The Total Supply in Loss metric, which measures the amount of Bitcoin in circulation that is at a net unrealized loss, provides further confirmation for comparison. Last week, this indicator reached 7,1 million BTC, the highest level since September 2023.
Spent Output Profit Ratio (Spent Output Profit Ratio, SOPR) for long-term Bitcoin holders is also at the level of the first quarter of 2022. This indicator reflects whether BTC investors who have held it for more than 155 days are selling their coins at a profit or a loss.
Index SOPR For long-term Bitcoin holders, the price has fallen sharply in recent weeks but remains above 1, indicating that long-term holders continue to sell for a net profit.