Bitcoin‘s price could be entering the worst phase of the 2026 bear market, as indicated by losses among long-term investors.
The medium-term bearish outlook for Bitcoin is exacerbated by the growing volume of losses, which statistically has triggered further sell-offs. CryptoQuant Data show that the historical minimum was formed after this volume exceeded 50%.
BTC supply is shrinking. Source: CryptoQuant
The medium-term bullish outlook for BTC looks bleak as long-term investors lock in losses, confirms CryptoQuant data. In particular, the profit margin on sales (SOPR) for long-term Bitcoin holders, which shows whether coins were sold at a profit or loss, fell below 1.
Historically it has happened that if SOPR For long-term BTC holders, the price dropped below 1, and the investor group’s confidence declined, fueling bearish sentiment in the following months.
Long-term BTC holder SOPR. Source: CryptoQuant
In addition, according to analytical data CryptoQuant platformsAfter a brief buying surge in February, demand for the flagship cryptocurrency has declined.
Obvious demand for Bitcoin. Source: CryptoQuant
Medium-term BTC price forecast
Bitcoin price signals of a medium-term bearish trend after it bounced back from $70,790 on Tuesday and was trading at $70,525 at the time of writing.
Bitcoin Price Change Over 30 Days. Data from CoinGecko
From a technical analysis perspective, the BTC price could be very close to its low after several months in a downtrend, according to Trading expert 0xChiefy.
According to this schedule, Bitcoin will fall to $45,000 in 10 days.
Bitcoin approaching the final accumulation zone. Source 0xChiefy
The crypto trader believes that the price of BTC will fall to $45,000 before rebounding to its all-time high.