Over the past three years, the platform polymarket recorded a trading volume of $62,3 billion, representing 54,5% of the $114,4 billion forecast market segment, according to Token Terminal.
Kalshi ranks second with $52 billion in notional trading volume over three years, demonstrating the dominance of these two platforms in the regulated event trading space.
According to Token Terminal, over a three-year period, prediction markets as a whole processed over $114 billion in conditional flow, while polymarket ranks first in terms of total volume. Most of this activity is polymarket accounts for Polygon, which remains the primary blockchain for event contracts during the period under review.
It’s no coincidence that US regulators and legislators are preparing to tighten oversight of prediction markets. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has already issued guidance classifying event contracts as a financial asset class and has begun the process of determining how the Commodity Exchange Act applies to prediction markets.
Source: Token Bus Terminal
CFTC Chairman Michael Selig previously asserted that the agency had exclusive jurisdiction over these sites, but a recent Ohio court ruling called into question whether federal law completely preempts state gambling laws.
Furthermore, lawmakers are unhappy with war-related contracts. Recently, Senator Adam Schiff introduced a bill The DEATH BETS Act, which would amend the Commodity Exchange Act to prohibit CFTC-regulated venues from placing bets on exchanges related to war, terrorism, assassinations, and the death of individuals.
Meanwhile, prediction markets linked to the escalation of the US-Iran conflict have driven trading activity on the platforms. polymarket и Kalshi to record levels. Weekly nominal trading volume on both platforms reached new highs in the tens of billions of dollars in nominal terms.