On October 31, Mt.Gox trustees have a deadline to complete the first one-time and interim payments to Bitcoin (BTC) holders. Currently, Mt.Gox wallets hold 34,689 BTC.
The trustee distributes the bitcoins and Bitcoin Cash through designated exchanges such as Bitstamp и Kraken, or issues the cash equivalent to those who did not request cryptocurrency.
This raises questions about whether the bitcoins listed on exchanges will be sold in full or in part, and whether BTC is headed for another decline.
Prior to this, approximately 107,000 BTC of the 142,000 BTC held by trustees had been transferred to final recipients. According to Glassnode, 59,000 BTC had arrived on exchanges by July 29, 2024, and by mid-August, BitGo held approximately 33,023 BTC in monitored wallets.
The currently remaining 34,689 BTC is unlikely to be credited to recipients’ wallets at once before the specified deadline, as the processing intervals at Bitstamp и Kraken Vary from 90 to 60 days. This means that potential sales will be spread out over weeks rather than happening all at once.
Previously, of the 107,000 BTC distributed, approximately 59,000 BTC were sent to exchanges, and approximately 33,000 BTC were processed through BitGo. Information on the remaining transactions is not published. Therefore, of the 92,000 BTC tracked, 64,1% were sent to exchanges.
Following the same logic, the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin would be a simultaneous influx of 22,253 BTC onto exchanges. It’s unlikely that holders will completely dump their coins, but with Bitcoin currently trading at around $111,000, potential sales could reach $2,4 billion.
In practice, this figure may cause only minor fluctuations in the BTC rate.