The World Gold Council has compiled an interesting forecast for how the gold price will change in 2026.
Experts presented four possible scenarios for the development of events:
- The return of reflation, which will cause the price of the precious metal to fluctuate in the range of $3,200 to $3,900 (purple area on the chart);
- Implementation of the macro consensus, which envisages a change in the XAU price in the corridor from $3,900 to $4,300 (green);
- A slight downturn in the economy, suggesting a rise in the gold price to $4,300-4,600 (light green);
- A hellish loop that will lead to the asset price rising to $4,600-5,300 (blue).
Possible change in the XAU rate on the chart
Historical data suggests that gold prices rarely move in line with macroeconomic expectations, so World Gold Council analysts believe the third scenario, which suggests a 2,4-9,5% increase in gold prices from their current levels, is the most likely. They believe a weakening dollar and a stock market decline, driven by the decline in AI stocks, will contribute to a moderate increase in the precious metal’s price.
A bullish scenario, which sees the XAU rise to $5,300, would come into play if the geopolitical situation worsens, economies in many countries slow, and the US significantly cuts its key interest rate, causing government bond yields to fall. However, reflation, which is characterized by economic stimulation through increased money supply or tax cuts, would, conversely, drag the gold price down, possibly to $3,200.