Bitcoin trading around $86,000, while losses in exchange-traded funds, treasuries and miners are mounting.
According to Checkonchain’s December 15 research note, «Systemic Stress,» investors are facing losses of approximately $100 billion.
System load on BitcoinSource: Checkonchain
Checkonchain chart showing the average cost of investment in ETF and the market value ratio ETF to the realized value (MVRV), indicates that the cost of investment in ETF and the true average are in the same range of about $80,000–82,000.
This means that a significant portion of institutional investors are close to the break-even point.
These pivot points are important because they link price movement to balance sheets rather than chart patterns.
When the price is at or below the total cost, realized losses can increase and liquidity decline as market participants close positions during rebounds.
When this zone coincides with groups that have become key sources of demand in 2024 and 2025, the market is forced to determine whether institutional positioning serves as a floor for costs. A break of this level could also signal a decline.
In their week 49 report, Glassnode experts wrote that Bitcoin fluctuates between the short-term cost of investment of about $102,700 and the true market average of about $81,300. The $95,000 mark is called the early recovery level.
Bitwise also identified a true market average of approximately $82,000 as support. The support range extends from $82,000 to $75,000, with IBIT’s cost of investment approximately $81,000 and Strategy’s cost of investment approximately $75,000.
Basic cost bitcoin ETFSource: Bitwise
Bitwise estimates that unrealized losses after the 35% drop amount to approximately $152 billion (approximately 6,6% of the market capitalization), bringing total losses to $765 billion.
The stress factor is the volume of capital ETF in the range of $75,000 to $85,000.
Total spot cost ETF on Bitcoin is about $80,000 with a capital of approximately $127 billion.
Reuters cited data showing that Bitcoin’s average correlation with the S&P 500 index in 2025 is 0,5, compared to 0,29 in 2024.
A correlation with the Nasdaq 100 Index of 0,52 versus 0,23 was also noted, linking many of the drawdowns to risk-on stock market conditions rather than catalysts unique to cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin price fluctuations. Source: LSEG/Reuters
In this situation, interest rates matter because they set the tone for risk appetite. Bank of America expects two more rate cuts in June and July 2026.
This keeps the 2026 rate trajectory at the center of the risk asset debate.